在北美盜版 IPTV 產生的流量比 BitTorrent 還多

算是前陣子的新聞,在北美地區的盜版 IPTV 流量比 BitTorrent 的流量還多:「IPTV Piracy Generates More Internet Traffic Than Torrents」。

During peak hours, 6.5% of all downstream traffic on fixed networks is generated by TV piracy services.

To put this into perspective; this is more than all BitTorrent traffic during the peak hours, which was “only” 1.73% last year, and dropping.

如果把影音網站都考慮進去,最大的還是 YouTubeNetflix 這兩個啦,不過盜版的量也不小...

然後也有把最大的量分析出來,這裡面最大的量是 Indian Star Plus HD,應該是印度裔或是印度籍的人看家鄉的東西?

The most viewed of all in North America, with 4.6% of all pirated TV traffic, is the Indian Star Plus HD.

不過 Sandvine 一直都有方法分析整個北美流量,讓人感覺不太舒服...

歐盟對於盜版是否帶來傷害的研究

歐盟在 2014 年做了關於盜版與銷量的研究,結果一直被壓到最近才發表出來 (於是就大概可以猜到結論了...):「EU Piracy Report Suppression Raises Questions Over Transparency」。

“In general, the results do not show robust statistical evidence of displacement of sales by online copyright infringements,” the study notes.

甚至:

The study found that piracy had a slightly positive effect on the videogames industry, suggesting that those who play pirate games eventually become buyers of official content.

另外也描述了現有電影與 TV-series 定價策略偏高:

“Overall, the analysis indicates that for films and TV-series current prices are higher than 80 per cent of the illegal downloaders and streamers are willing to pay,” the study notes.

難怪被壓著...

DVD 的發行時間差異導致盜版

MPAA 資助的報告顯示 DVD 的發行時間差異導致盜版:「DVD Release Delays Boost Piracy and Hurt Sales, Study Shows」,報告在「Windows of Opportunity: The Impact of Piracy and Delayed International Availability on DVD Sales」這邊可以看到。

用真實資料計算得到:

"When we run our regressions on Spain and Italy alone, we observe a 10% drop in sales for every 10-day delay in legal availability, as compared to a 2% drop in sales for every 10-day delay in the entire sample," the paper reads.

"Our results suggest that an additional 10-day delay between the availability of digital piracy and the legitimate DVD release date in a particular country is correlated with a 2-3% reduction in DVD sales in that country," the researchers write.

時效的重要...

YouTube/Winny 有助於日本動畫的銷售?

Slashdot 上看到「Piracy Boosts Anime Sales, Says Japanese Government Study」,引用自 TorrentFreak 的「Internet Piracy Boosts Anime Sales, Study Concludes」。

原始的報告可以在「Do Illegal Copies of Movies Reduce the Revenue of Legal Products? The case of TV animation in Japan」(Abstract 是英文,報告本身是日文 PDF)。

作者分析 YouTubeWinny 這兩個「平台」的數據,試著找出對 DVD 銷售與 DVD 租用的關聯性。而結論是「YouTube 點閱率高的,不會影響 DVD 租用,而且會幫助 DVD 銷售」,而「Winny 會負面影響 DVD 租用,但不會影響 DVD 銷售」。

但看完報告後,這是標準「數字會說話」與「數字會騙人」的案例。把「DVD 賣得好」的功勞推給「YouTube 的點閱次數高」並不合理,報告的數據只表示了這兩個數字相關。另一個合理的假設是「作品品質夠好,所以 DVD 與 YouTube 點閱次數都提昇」。

我的感想是,這份報告沒有意義。