幹壞事是進步最大的原動力
Google Deepmind 前幾天發表了 Gemini：「Introducing Gemini: our largest and most capable AI model」，同時也釋出了 Demo 影片：
但後來大家發現 Demo 影片中人並不是直接透過語音與 Gemini 互動，而是把輸入進去的指令讓人讀出來，而且省略掉中間的各種 delay，是個被後製不少的影片：「Google’s best Gemini demo was faked」。
然後就有人用 GPT-4 實作出一個可以互動的版本了，雖然是 PoC 等級的，但反而更真實：「Show HN: I Remade the Fake Google Gemini Demo, Except Using GPT-4 and It's Real (greg.technology)」。
記得 Google 年初的 Bart Demo 也出包，可以來看看後面第三次的情況？
DeepMind 丟出新聞稿，提到了 Gopher 這個比 OpenAI 家的 GPT-3 更暴力的 language model：「Language modelling at scale: Gopher, ethical considerations, and retrieval」。
GPT-3 是 175 billion 個參數，Gopher 則是拉到 280 billion，加上 tune 了不少東西，在成績上面可以看出來好不少：
另外是主打反歧視與倫理道德標準 (在「Ethical and social risks from Large Language Models」這邊提到)。
看起來主要是推出對應的產品，跟 OpenAI 家對打...
前幾天在 Hacker News Daily 上看到的消息，DeepMind 發了一篇新的論文，講 Player of Games 這個新的演算法：「Player of Games」，Hacker News 上的討論在這：「Player of Games (arxiv.org)」。
照留言上的討論，Player of Games 的名字由來應該是取自科幻小說《The Player of Games》。
這是一個更一般性的演算法，可以同時駕馭 perfect information 與 imperfect information：
We introduce Player of Games, a general-purpose algorithm that unifies previous approaches, combining guided search, self-play learning, and game-theoretic reasoning. Player of Games is the first algorithm to achieve strong empirical performance in large perfect and imperfect information games -- an important step towards truly general algorithms for arbitrary environments.
論文裡面也提到以前的各種演算法 (包含 DeepMind 自家的一些演算法)。在 perfect information 的例子來說，可以看到沒有 AlphaZero 強 (西洋棋與圍棋)，但也已經有一定水準了，算是個起頭的感覺：
主要的成就在於一般性，但論文後面也有提到，目前這個演算法需要的資源還是過大，還有改善的空間...
前幾天 Blizzard 公佈的消息，DeepMind 的星海爭霸二 AI (AlphaStar) 將會透過 Blizzard 的 Battle.net 歐洲區伺服器跟人類對戰：「DeepMind Research on Ladder」。
Experimental versions of DeepMind’s StarCraft II agent, AlphaStar, will soon play a small number of games on the competitive ladder in Europe as part of ongoing research into AI.
預設是不會對到的，需要選擇參與：
If you would like the chance to help DeepMind with its research by matching against AlphaStar, you can opt in by clicking the “opt-in” button on the in-game popup window. You can alter your opt-in selection at any time by using the “DeepMind opt-in” button on the 1v1 Versus menu.
但你仍然不會知道對手是人還是 AI，而且如同一般對戰情況，這會影響到你的戰績：
For scientific test purposes, DeepMind will be benchmarking AlphaStar’s performance by playing anonymously during a series of blind trial matches. This means the StarCraft community will not know which matches AlphaStar is playing, to help ensure that all games are played under the same conditions. AlphaStar plays with built-in restrictions that the DeepMind team has defined in consultation with pro players. A win or a loss against AlphaStar will affect your MMR as normal.
okay，這樣大概知道為什麼只開放歐洲區了...
加州從今年七月開始，禁止 AI 偽裝成人類 (前幾天也有一些新聞在報導)：「A California law now means chatbots have to disclose they’re not human」，對應的法條在「Bill Text - SB-1001 Bots: disclosure」這邊可以看到：
17941. (a) It shall be unlawful for any person to use a bot to communicate or interact with another person in California online, with the intent to mislead the other person about its artificial identity for the purpose of knowingly deceiving the person about the content of the communication in order to incentivize a purchase or sale of goods or services in a commercial transaction or to influence a vote in an election. A person using a bot shall not be liable under this section if the person discloses that it is a bot.
(b) The disclosure required by this section shall be clear, conspicuous, and reasonably designed to inform persons with whom the bot communicates or interacts that it is a bot.
而加州是 Blizzard Entertainment 的總部...
法條上面對「online platform」有設計排除條款，不過如果只算星海二的人數，有可能不到這個豁免限制... 所以得避開而改用歐洲區來測試？
(c) “Online platform” means any public-facing Internet Web site, Web application, or digital application, including a social network or publication, that has 10,000,000 or more unique monthly United States visitors or users for a majority of months during the preceding 12 months.
(c) This chapter does not impose a duty on service providers of online platforms, including, but not limited to, Web hosting and Internet service providers.
美國軍方應該是超級關注這個議題，相較於 AlphaGo 或是 AlphaZero 是資訊完全透明的遊戲，這次要踏入非對稱資訊的遊戲。
如果在這個領域上有成果的話，可以預期未來的戰爭 (yeah 實體戰爭) 會開始大量採用 AI 了...
Twitter 上看的消息，2018 年上到 Netflix：
Happy holidays everyone! Excited to announce that #AlphaGo Movie will be available to watch on #Netflix from 1st January 2018! pic.twitter.com/AlJhM9GuAa
— AlphaGo Movie (@alphagomovie) December 25, 2017
沒幾天了，來等吧...
在 Facebook 上看到 Aja Huang 的訊息，介紹了 DeepMind 放出的新資料，由 AlphaGo 分析人類開局的各種勝率 (不是先前發表出來更凶的 AlphaZero，但不曉得是 AlphaGo Zero 還是 AlphaGo Master...)。
網站在 AlphaGo Teach: Discover new and creative ways of playing Go，盤面上的數字都是指黑棋勝率。
This tool provides analysis of 6,000 of the most popular opening sequences from the recent history of Go, using data from 231,000 human games and 75 games AlphaGo played against human players.
Explore the board and learn how AlphaGo's moves compare to those of professional and amateur players.
由於這是暴力法算出超大量的開局資料，而且是完整公佈在網路上，可以預料接下來的職業比賽，開局應該會參考這邊的資料進行修正...
Blizzard 公佈了在十一月的月初將會舉辦星海二的 AI Workshop：「Announcing the StarCraft II AI Workshop」。
On November 3 and 4, Blizzard and DeepMind will co-host the StarCraft II AI Workshop at the Hilton Anaheim hotel, next to the Anaheim Convention Center.
官方 (包括 DeepMind 團隊) 也會針對 SC2LE (Starcraft II Learning Environment) 與 SC2API (StarCraft II API) 提供交流：
Engineers and researchers from Blizzard and DeepMind will also be on-hand to meet with attendees and answers questions about the SC2LE and SC2API.
然後時間會跟 BlizzCon 2017 重疊 (目前看起來是卡到最後兩天)，票是不能通用的：
While this event takes place during BlizzCon 2017, it is considered a separate event and is not part of the official BlizzCon program – therefore BlizzCon badges will not grant access to the AI workshop. However, we will be providing a limited pool of shareable BlizzCon badges that attendees of the AI workshop can use to check out BlizzCon and catch the StarCraft II Global Finals for inspiration on how to build superior AIs!
接下來應該會有不少消息出來... DeepMind 團隊的開發進度有可以跟頂尖選手競賽嗎？
DeepMind 家的 AlphaGo 又要重出江湖了：「Exploring the mysteries of Go with AlphaGo and China's top players」。這次將會跟中國的頂尖職業棋手對弈，裡面提到三種賽制：
The summit will feature a variety of game formats involving AlphaGo and top Chinese players, specifically designed to explore the mysteries of the game together. The games will include:
- “Pair Go” — A game where one Chinese pro will play against another...except they will both have their own AlphaGo teammate, alternating moves, to take the concept of ‘learning together’ quite literally.
- “Team Go” — A game between AlphaGo and a five-player team consisting of China’s top pro players, working together to test AlphaGo’s creativity and adaptability to their combined style.
- “Ke Jie vs AlphaGo” — Of course, the centerpiece of the event will be a classic 1:1 match of three games between AlphaGo and the world’s number one player, Ke Jie, to push AlphaGo to (...perhaps beyond!) its limits.
有傳言是這樣打 (目前大家都抄來抄去...)，但目前還沒看到正式的公告：
（一）5月23,25,27日 柯潔與AlphaGo三番棋：每方3小時，5次1分鐘讀秒；
（二）5月26日 時越、羋昱廷、唐韋星、陳耀燁和周睿羊5人團隊賽：每方2小時30分，保留3次1分鐘讀秒；
（三）5月26日 古力、連笑人機配對賽：每方1小時，1次1分鐘讀秒。
另外有一篇「Innovations of AlphaGo」講了不少年初 AlphaGo 連勝六十盤的對局給人類棋手的啟發。
另外 DeepMind 的 CEO，Demis Hassabis 前幾天剛好有給了一個演講，也是講了不少東西 (不過都是之前就提過的)：
這樣來安排那幾天空時間下來...
DeepMind 宣佈與 Blizzard 合作，開發了 Star Craft II 的界面讓 AI 可以操作：「DeepMind and Blizzard to release StarCraft II as an AI research environment」：
Today at BlizzCon 2016 in Anaheim, California, we announced our collaboration with Blizzard Entertainment to open up StarCraft II to AI and Machine Learning researchers around the world.
這次比起圍棋更有意義的地方在於，圍棋是在完整資訊的情況下做出決策，但真實世界中經常是沒有完整的資訊就要做決策，這次的 StartCraft II 類似於這樣的環境，更接近於現實生活的情境：
StarCraft is an interesting testing environment for current AI research because it provides a useful bridge to the messiness of the real-world. The skills required for an agent to progress through the environment and play StarCraft well could ultimately transfer to real-world tasks.
另外考慮到電腦可以無限制精細操作每個單位，而人類有「操作速度」的問題，在規劃上會設限每分鐘可以操作的速度：
Computers are capable of extremely fast control, but that doesn’t necessarily demonstrate intelligence, so agents must interact with the game within limits of human dexterity in terms of “Actions Per Minute”.
來拉板凳繼續看下去...
Google 的 DeepMind 所研發出來的 AlphaGo 與李世乭的「谷李五番棋」將在今天開打。
中國規則、兩個小時、一分鐘讀秒：
The matches will be played under Chinese rules with a komi of 7.5 (the compensation points the player who goes second receives at the end of the match). Each player will receive two hours per match with three lots of 60-second byoyomi (countdown periods after they have finished their allotted time).
將在韓國時間下午一點開賽，對我們也就是十二點開賽：
The matches will be held at the Four Seasons Hotel, Seoul, South Korea, starting at 1pm local time (4am GMT; day before 11pm ET, 8pm PT) on March 9th, 10th, 12th, 13th and 15th.
將會有大量的媒體講解直播，毫無疑問的，YouTube 在 DeepMind 這個頻道會有直播，目前看起來是早上的十一點半就會開始了。
其他的頻道，台灣已知的有：
不過我應該會到處看吧，中國的圍棋網站「围棋TV」也會在十一點半開始直播。
很多人都有猜測勝負，但自從去年十月贏了樊麾後，不知道成長了多少。其實都是在資訊不足的情況下猜測，在這種情況下，人類大獲全勝或是電腦大獲全勝都不意外...
也因此，五番棋的第一盤應該是最轟動的，因為可以看出 AlphaGo 長到什麼程度... 不過聽說第一盤 Google 只會拿單機版出來應戰？所以如果輸的很慘的話就會拿雲端版來戰？
啊啊啊我好想看啊...