超過一半的心理研究都無法重製結果

應該是前陣子被 Nuzzel 推薦 2015 八月的老新聞,這個研究在 Nature 上發表:「Over half of psychology studies fail reproducibility test」。

這個研究重複了 98 篇原創研究來重新實驗:

In the biggest project of its kind, Brian Nosek, a social psychologist and head of the Center for Open Science in Charlottesville, Virginia, and 269 co-authors repeated work reported in 98 original papers from three psychology journals, to see if they independently came up with the same results.

結果在 100 次的實驗 (其中有 2 個是重複的) 發現只有 39 個實驗結果被重製出來:

According to the replicators' qualitative assessments, as previously reported by Nature, only 39 of the 100 replication attempts were successful. (There were 100 completed replication attempts on the 98 papers, as in two cases replication efforts were duplicated by separate teams.)

這成功率其實頗低,如果實驗無法被重製,就不能算科學研究...

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